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The bond market often signals economic shifts before they appear in the stock market or broader economy. One of the clearest warnings comes from the behavior of US Treasury bond spreads, especially the relationship between long-term and short-term yields. Right now, the spreads between the 10-year Treasury note and shorter maturities like the 2-year and 3-month bills are drawing attention. Understanding these spreads and the yield curve they form can reveal why many investors

Cryptocurrency markets have long fascinated investors with their dramatic price swings. Bitcoin (BTC), the most well-known digital asset, has experienced several boom and bust cycles since its inception. These cycles follow a pattern similar to past bubbles in dot-com stocks, housing markets, and commodities. As of September 18, 2025, we began shorting BTC, anticipating a significant downtrend based on these recurring patterns. This post explains why BTC is likely to fall fur

The housing market has experienced dramatic shifts over the past few years. After a sharp rise in prices following the Covid-19 pandemic, signs now point to a significant decline ahead. Our research suggests that housing prices will continue to fall, potentially reaching pre-pandemic levels within the next few years. For buyers and investors, this means patience could lead to substantial savings. This post explores why waiting until 2027 to 2030 could be the smartest move if

The stock market faces a storm unlike any in recent memory. Based on extensive research and signals from various economic indicators, a crash between 40% and 80% could hit in 2026 and 2027. This is not a typical market correction where buying the dip works. Instead, it is a warning to prepare, protect your assets, and reconsider exposure to US equities. This post explains the reasons behind this forecast, what to watch for, and how to respond wisely.

Many people believe recessions start when the Federal Reserve raises interest rates. The common story is that higher rates slow down the economy, leading to a downturn. Yet, history shows a different pattern: recessions often begin after the Fed starts cutting rates, not when it hikes them. Understanding this connection helps clarify how monetary policy interacts with economic cycles and what signals to watch for in the future. Why People Think Rate Hikes Cause Recessions Whe

The stock market often feels like a rollercoaster, with prices soaring one moment and plunging the next. Investors constantly ask whether the market is fairly valued or dangerously overvalued. One key tool to assess this is the Shiller Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio. This blog post explains what the Shiller P/E ratio is, why it matters, and what history tells us about market behavior when this ratio reaches high levels, especially in the context of the S&P 500. Shiller P/E rat

Unemployment has been climbing steadily, raising concerns about the health of the economy. Macropoly Research predicts that unemployment could reach as high as 8% within the next one to two years. This forecast aligns with their recession risk outlook, which suggests a challenging period ahead. A key factor in this prediction is the behavior of bond yield curves, particularly the difference between the 10-year and 3-month U.S. Treasury yields. Understanding how these curves r

In today's fast-paced economy, understanding macroeconomic trends is crucial for businesses aiming to thrive and grow. These trends can significantly influence market conditions, consumer behavior, and ultimately, a company's bottom line. By staying informed about the broader economic landscape, businesses can make strategic decisions that align with current and future market conditions. This blog post will explore key macroeconomic trends, their implications for businesses,

In today's fast-paced financial landscape, having access to accurate and timely information is crucial for making informed decisions. Whether you are an investor, a business owner, or simply someone looking to enhance your financial literacy, understanding market trends and economic indicators can significantly impact your financial success. This is where Macropoly Research comes into play. By joining Macropoly Research, you can unlock a wealth of financial insights that can

In today's unpredictable financial landscape, investors face a myriad of challenges. Market volatility can create both opportunities and risks, making it essential for investors to develop effective strategies. Macropoly Research offers valuable insights into navigating these turbulent waters. This blog post will explore key strategies to help you thrive in volatile markets, drawing on the expertise of Macropoly Research. Understanding Market Volatility Market volatility refe